mercredi 21 mai 2008

Wednesday 21 May 2008

Geneva Center for security policy
“Afghanistan: Mission Impossible?”:

A resurgent Taliban and Al-Qaeda, which now launch brazen attacks in Kabul, coupled with a reticent NATO, which is either unable or unwilling to raise the forces necessary to carry out their mission, and a new government in Pakistan, which is entering into dangerous deals with militants operating in and out of the North West Frontier Province, pose yet another existential crisis for Afghanistan. Has Afghanistan become an impossible mission for the international community? What are the prospects for the survival of a viable and democratic Afghanistan? Three distinguished experts, representing the key actors engaged in Afghanistan, will focus on these challenges and the prospects for the country’s future.

Chair: Dr. W. Pal Singh SIDHU
Course Director, New Issues in Security Course, GCSP

Introduction of each speaker.

Brig. Gen. Richard NUGEE
Chief Joint Fires and Influence, Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (United Kingdom)

· The first challenge is time. The force was invited by the government. NATO representes the majority of the force even if different countries including the US forces which are not welcomed (unpopular) in most of the country because they are seen as an occuping forrce, as an ennemy.
We must show progress but it is very difficult.
We are winning battle against Taliban but at the country level we are losing the war, because in this war politic is more important than military aspects.
This imperative of time is linked to the perception of security. Insecurity is to tackle.
Troups are less important than in Iraq, police is corrupted, and the creation of an army is difficult.

· The second challenge is information operations. The essential problem is uncoordination.
- Domestic agenda trumps coalition/NATO agenda.
- Informations are given out of the military chaine of command.
- Politically-driven need for immediacy.
- TCNS often under resource the NATO element of a national contribution.
- Promoting of “good news” when the reality is some of the situation is bad.

2 focus: people (perception and action)
forces as NATO (input and result)



Dr. Barnett R. RUBIN
Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation of New York University

Talibans want to know where do the money, forces... come.
US fight against terrorism, but concerning the objective of negociation, there is a strategic ambiguïty.
The political mission is unclear, even if NATO has military objectives. It would be important to have a stable governement and democratisation. We have to remember that Afghanistan is 1 of the 5 poorest country of the world and that the terrorist threat is real. They is pauverty, weak infrastructures and institutions. Afghanistan is vulnerable, and some people use the situation.
Occident has a responsability in the present situation regarding their behaviour when sovietic union broke.
Iran has interest in instability (not US).
Russia has no interest in NATO presence.
India has interest in an access to the country.
The need of infrastructure, energy, transport, use of water... is clear.
Diplomaticaly speaking, the creation of stability conditions (political and economical) is the solution to prevent threats.
Democratisation of Pakistan can contribute to the stabilisation of Afghanistan developing cooperation in the region.


Amb. Masood KHAN
Permanent Representative of the Mission of Pakistan to the United Nations, Geneva

Afghanistan: Mission Impossible? No, we can find a solution. If the answer was yes, there would have a military disengagement of the US forces. The aim is to bring peace, stability, rule of law, reconstruction and national reconciliation in the region.
Communication between Afghanistan and Pakistan is essential and existes (see the number of visites of the heads of States).
There are also 2.5 millions refugees. HCR is working on their rapatriation.
Pakistan is fighting against the terrorists present on his territory, and against poverty (hospitals, schools).
Troups are inadequate (insuffisant) in Afghanistan. To succed we need more troups.
Importance of regional cooperation, communication, as the other speakers said before are essential.

Suzanne Roset.